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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-14 16:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:45:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:22:10 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 61
2018-09-14 16:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 140 FONT11 KNHC 141440 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 61 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 10 6(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 15 10(25) 2(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) RALEIGH NC 34 36 8(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ROCKY MT NC 34 51 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 84 3(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FAYETTEVILLE 50 20 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FAYETTEVILLE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 16 17(33) 5(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CHARLOTTE NC 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 81 12(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) FLORENCE SC 50 32 32(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) FLORENCE SC 64 5 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COLUMBIA SC 34 37 27(64) 9(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) COLUMBIA SC 50 2 9(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) COLUMBIA SC 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 64 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 75 9(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GEORGETOWN SC 64 28 7(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 34 74 14(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) CHARLESTON SC 50 8 19(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 64 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 27 25(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 9 19(28) 8(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) AUGUSTA GA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 10 16(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 61
2018-09-14 16:40:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 920 WTNT31 KNHC 141440 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...FLORENCE JUST INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Duck, North Carolina, including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Duck, North Carolina, south to Bogue Inlet, including the Albemarle Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville Beach, and a 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall totals exceeding 14 inches thus far have been reported at several locations across southeastern North Carolina. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina today. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 61
2018-09-14 16:39:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 687 WTNT21 KNHC 141439 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 61 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DUCK NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH TO BOGUE INLET...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 140SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-14 15:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE STILL WOBBLING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 10:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 the center of Florence was located near 34.0, -78.0 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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