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Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-14 04:58:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 02:58:43 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 59
2018-09-14 04:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 487 WTNT31 KNHC 140258 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Duck North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday. More significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h). A storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of the North Carolina Department of Transportation. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and southeastern North Carolina through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 59
2018-09-14 04:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 486 WTNT41 KNHC 140258 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane. Florence has been wobbling a little since the previous advisory, but the 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 305/5 kt. Nearly all of the track models agree that Florence will turn westward or west-southwestward during the next 36 hours, bringing the hurricane's center inland over extreme southern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Friday night. After 48 hours, Florence is expected to recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains around a western Atlantic ridge. No major changes were required to the NHC official track forecast, and it is generally close to the multi-model consensus aids. It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track, straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland. While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be ruled out as a possibility. Florence's intensity is not likely to change much in the 12 hours or so it has left over water. Once the center moves inland, the intensity is forecast to decrease. However, since a good portion of Florence's circulation will remain over water for the next 36-48 hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the regular SHIPS model (which assumes a storm staying over water) and the Decay-SHIPS model (which assumes the storm has moved inland). Based on that, Florence should weaken to a tropical storm just after 24 hours and then below tropical storm strength after 48 hours. Florence remains a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through Friday. This surge is also likely along portions of the South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of the South Carolina coast on Friday. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 34.0N 76.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
2018-09-14 04:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 402 FONT11 KNHC 140257 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 3( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 2(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) RICHMOND VA 34 4 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) DANVILLE VA 34 5 14(19) 6(25) 2(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) NORFOLK NAS 34 7 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) NORFOLK VA 34 7 7(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 1(19) OCEANA NAS VA 34 7 7(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 1(19) ELIZABETH CTY 34 25 10(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GREENSBORO NC 34 5 19(24) 7(31) 4(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) GREENSBORO NC 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 23 27(50) 5(55) 2(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) RALEIGH NC 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 48 14(62) 3(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ROCKY MT NC 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 62 24(86) 5(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) FAYETTEVILLE 50 6 30(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 4 20(24) 11(35) 8(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 64 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 64 27 32(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 64 13 30(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BALD HEAD ISL 64 60 16(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) FLORENCE SC 34 28 50(78) 11(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) FLORENCE SC 50 1 28(29) 14(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) FLORENCE SC 64 X 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 4 30(34) 15(49) 13(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 94 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 44 45(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) LITTLE RIVER 64 4 36(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MYRTLE BEACH 34 82 16(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 21 59(80) 6(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 40(41) 8(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GEORGETOWN SC 34 45 44(89) 5(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GEORGETOWN SC 50 2 42(44) 15(59) 2(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 7 46(53) 17(70) 5(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 5( 5) 13(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 20(23) 16(39) 7(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 8(11) 12(23) 10(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 8(11) 10(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 59
2018-09-14 04:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 428 WTNT21 KNHC 140255 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.8W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.8W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 76.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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