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Hurricane Florence Graphics

2018-09-13 11:01:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:01:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:22:10 GMT

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 56

2018-09-13 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 440 WTNT41 KNHC 130856 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 The satellite presentation of Florence has changed little overnight with the eye waxing and waning in infrared imagery. The eye has moved into NWS radar range and can be seen in radar data from Morehead City and Wilmington NWS 88-D imagery. An 0616 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that the convection over the southern and southeastern portions of the storm is still disrupted, and that the eyewall was open to the southeast. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft also reported that the eyewall was not fully intact on its last pass through the storm just after that time. The Air Force plane measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 102 kt and peak SFMR winds of 85 kt during the mission. These data suggest that the intensity may be slightly lower, but the initial intensity has been maintained at 95 kt, since the plane may not have sampled the strongest winds. Another Air Force plane will be in Florence shortly, and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the hurricane. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it appears that some southern shear has caused the degradation of the inner core. The global models suggest that this shear will relax today while Florence moves over warm waters, however, given the current storm structure, little overall change in strength is anticipated as Florence approaches the coast. Gradual weakening should occur as the hurricane interacts with land in 24-36 h, with a faster rate of weakening predicted once Florence moves farther inland. Florence is moving northwestward or 315 degrees at 13 kt. A developing mid-level ridge over the north-central United States should cause the forward speed of the hurricane to decrease today. As the steering currents collapse tonight and Friday, Florence is forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward and continue that slow motion into the weekend. The global models predict that the ridge will slide eastward over the weekend, which should allow Florence to turn northwestward and northward by the end of the forecast period. Although there is still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, with the GFS along the northern side of the guidance envelope, and the ECWMF along the southern edge, the various consensus aids have moved little. As a result, the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory. Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence is a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 32.8N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 33.7N 76.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 34.2N 77.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 34.3N 78.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 34.1N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 35.4N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 39.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2018-09-13 10:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 08:55:47 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-13 10:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF FLORENCE ARE APPROACHING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 the center of Florence was located near 32.8, -74.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 56

2018-09-13 10:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 147 FONT11 KNHC 130855 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) RICHMOND VA 34 3 8(11) 14(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) 1(30) DANVILLE VA 34 2 15(17) 28(45) 5(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) DANVILLE VA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 4 13(17) 16(33) 3(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) NORFOLK VA 34 4 16(20) 16(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) 1(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 5 16(21) 15(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) 1(41) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 18 30(48) 9(57) 3(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) ELIZABETH CTY 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 16(18) 33(51) 6(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61) GREENSBORO NC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 4 41(45) 28(73) 4(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) RALEIGH NC 50 X 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 9 56(65) 14(79) 3(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) ROCKY MT NC 50 1 7( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ROCKY MT NC 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 88 5(93) 1(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) CAPE HATTERAS 50 28 10(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CAPE HATTERAS 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 6 70(76) 18(94) 1(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) FAYETTEVILLE 50 1 18(19) 44(63) 5(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X 2( 2) 25(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 9(11) 32(43) 11(54) 7(61) 2(63) X(63) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 92 7(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 22 61(83) 3(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CHERRY PT NC 64 3 37(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NEW RIVER NC 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 76 19(95) 1(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) NEW RIVER NC 64 30 41(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MOREHEAD CITY 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 68 28(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MOREHEAD CITY 64 22 56(78) 1(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SURF CITY NC 34 88 12(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 13 81(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SURF CITY NC 64 2 68(70) 10(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) WILMINGTON NC 34 75 24(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 5 82(87) 7(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 55(55) 18(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) BALD HEAD ISL 34 79 20(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 11 75(86) 6(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) BALD HEAD ISL 64 2 57(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) FLORENCE SC 34 3 39(42) 40(82) 7(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92) FLORENCE SC 50 X 4( 4) 32(36) 13(49) 6(55) X(55) X(55) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 9(11) 34(45) 13(58) 10(68) 2(70) X(70) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 22 66(88) 8(96) 1(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) LITTLE RIVER 50 2 37(39) 35(74) 4(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 8( 8) 34(42) 4(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) MYRTLE BEACH 34 28 57(85) 10(95) 1(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 28(30) 33(63) 4(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 6( 6) 23(29) 7(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) GEORGETOWN SC 34 4 42(46) 34(80) 5(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 3( 4) 23(27) 11(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 10(13) 34(47) 13(60) 6(66) 1(67) X(67) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 5( 7) 18(25) 11(36) 9(45) 2(47) X(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 11(29) 11(40) 3(43) 1(44) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 8(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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