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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 60

2018-09-14 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 755 WTNT41 KNHC 140842 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Florence over the past few hours. Data from the aircraft indicate little change in the intensity with the central pressure holding fairly steady. The current intensity estimate is kept at 80 kt for this advisory. There were a couple of SFMR-observed surface winds that were a little higher than that value, however these observations were very near Cape Lookout North Carolina, where shoaling likely caused some inflated wind speeds. The current intensity estimate is also consistent with peak WSR-88D Doppler radar velocities. The center of Florence will be moving inland very soon, but is expected to slow down even more today and tonight. As a result, it will remain fairly close to the coast today, with much of the circulation still over water. Therefore only a gradual decrease in intensity is called for through tonight. Over the weekend, a faster rate of weakening is likely while the center moves at a faster pace and goes farther inland. The hurricane is turning westward as it continues a slow forward motion of about 285/5 kt. Florence is currently in a region of weak steering currents associated with a col between two mid-level anticyclones. Over the next few days, a high pressure area is forecast to build to the east-northeast of the tropical cyclone. As a result, the system should gradually turn northwestward and northward in 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, Florence should turn northeastward as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and about in the middle of the dynamical guidance suite. It cannot be emphasized enough that the most serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence is extremely heavy rainfall, which will cause disastrous flooding that will be spreading inland through the weekend. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through today and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of the South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 34.2N 77.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 34.1N 78.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 34.1N 81.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 36.6N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 60

2018-09-14 10:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 772 FONT11 KNHC 140842 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) RICHMOND VA 34 7 4(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) DANVILLE VA 34 17 11(28) 4(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) DANVILLE VA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 9 5(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) NORFOLK VA 34 10 5(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) OCEANA NAS VA 34 10 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 29 5(34) 2(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GREENSBORO NC 34 21 17(38) 5(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) GREENSBORO NC 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 55 10(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) RALEIGH NC 50 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 65 4(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ROCKY MT NC 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 86 8(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) FAYETTEVILLE 50 52 11(63) 1(64) X(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) FAYETTEVILLE 64 12 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLOTTE NC 34 18 24(42) 8(50) 6(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) CHARLOTTE NC 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 64 89 10(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 80 16(96) 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) FLORENCE SC 50 27 41(68) 8(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) FLORENCE SC 64 4 30(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) COLUMBIA SC 34 29 33(62) 11(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) COLUMBIA SC 50 2 7( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) COLUMBIA SC 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 64 79 7(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 90 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MYRTLE BEACH 64 60 20(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GEORGETOWN SC 34 92 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 41 35(76) 3(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GEORGETOWN SC 64 9 32(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CHARLESTON SC 34 58 26(84) 5(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 20(23) 7(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 15 33(48) 9(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 6 21(27) 10(37) 7(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 5 20(25) 8(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 60

2018-09-14 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 413 WTNT31 KNHC 140841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...FLORENCE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA... ...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 77.4W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 77.4 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slow forward speed is expected today, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 72 mph (116 km/h) and a gust of 90 mph (145 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter data is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina today. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 60

2018-09-14 10:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 952 WTNT21 KNHC 140840 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 77.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 140SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 77.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.1N 78.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.1N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.6N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 77.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-14 09:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 the center of Florence was located near 34.2, -77.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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