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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 54
2018-09-12 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 677 WTNT41 KNHC 122042 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an increase the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is still expanding except toward the south. Florence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z global and regional model runs have come into much better agreement on Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge located between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to approach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow down considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow, with a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South Carolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite similar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36 hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5. A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process. However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which should further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that time. Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more, Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 30.9N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2018-09-12 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 204 FONT11 KNHC 122037 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) X(17) 1(18) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 3(23) X(23) RICHMOND VA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 8(29) 2(31) X(31) DANVILLE VA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 18(32) 15(47) 3(50) X(50) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) 10(27) 8(35) 1(36) 1(37) NORFOLK VA 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 10(29) 8(37) 2(39) X(39) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 10(29) 9(38) 1(39) X(39) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 11(13) 24(37) 11(48) 10(58) 1(59) X(59) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 18(33) 18(51) 7(58) X(58) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) RALEIGH NC 34 X 6( 6) 29(35) 21(56) 15(71) 4(75) X(75) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 9(10) 40(50) 16(66) 10(76) 1(77) X(77) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 75(81) 9(90) 2(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 20(20) 15(35) 3(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 8( 9) 52(61) 20(81) 10(91) 2(93) X(93) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 23(37) 15(52) 2(54) X(54) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 27(53) 11(64) 1(65) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 8(18) X(18) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 2 73(75) 21(96) 1(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 11(11) 51(62) 6(68) 8(76) X(76) X(76) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 2( 2) 21(23) 7(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) NEW RIVER NC 34 6 87(93) 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 52(52) 32(84) 4(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 13(13) 35(48) 4(52) 6(58) X(58) X(58) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 86(90) 8(98) 1(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 46(46) 39(85) 4(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 10(10) 46(56) 4(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) SURF CITY NC 34 2 68(70) 27(97) 2(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 X 11(11) 67(78) 9(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) SURF CITY NC 64 X 2( 2) 48(50) 15(65) 6(71) 1(72) X(72) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 54(56) 39(95) 3(98) 1(99) 1(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 7( 7) 62(69) 15(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 1( 1) 39(40) 19(59) 8(67) 1(68) X(68) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 71(74) 23(97) 2(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 16(16) 63(79) 10(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 3( 3) 49(52) 18(70) 7(77) 1(78) X(78) FLORENCE SC 34 X 5( 5) 32(37) 28(65) 22(87) 4(91) X(91) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 26(44) 9(53) X(53) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) X(22) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 20(30) 34(64) 14(78) 1(79) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 12(34) 1(35) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 22(24) 56(80) 12(92) 5(97) 1(98) X(98) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) 26(61) 17(78) 2(80) X(80) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 14(48) 2(50) X(50) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 36(39) 45(84) 9(93) 3(96) 1(97) X(97) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 33(36) 21(57) 16(73) 4(77) X(77) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 18(48) 4(52) X(52) GEORGETOWN SC 34 2 5( 7) 41(48) 24(72) 17(89) 3(92) X(92) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 28(55) 7(62) X(62) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 5(32) 1(33) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 25(43) 32(75) 7(82) X(82) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 28(35) 13(48) X(48) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 13(21) 35(56) 12(68) 1(69) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 2(24) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 31(43) 18(61) 2(63) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 30(42) 14(56) 1(57) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 12(18) 8(26) 1(27) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 9(25) 2(27) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) 6(30) X(30) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 1(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-12 22:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 the center of Florence was located near 30.9, -72.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 54
2018-09-12 22:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 138 WTNT31 KNHC 122036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 ...FLORENCE MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 72.5W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 72.5 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible through Thursday morning. Although slow weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast late Thursday and Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches. Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina beginning late Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 54
2018-09-12 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 923 WTNT21 KNHC 122036 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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