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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-12 16:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 the center of Florence was located near 29.8, -71.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 53

2018-09-12 16:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 700 WTNT31 KNHC 121458 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 53...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 Corrected second headline ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 71.3W ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 71.3 West. Florence is now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday. The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is still forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches. Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina beginning late Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 53

2018-09-12 16:56:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 779 WTNT41 KNHC 121456 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating Florence this morning has found no change in the hurricane's peak intensity of 115 kt, even though the central pressure had decreased a few millibars down to 943 mb. However, the aircraft data do indicate that Florence's inner-core wind field has expanded, with the 50-kt wind radii now extending outward up to 100 n mi to the northeast. Florence still has a very distinct eye in satellite imagery, but cloud top temperatures have been waxing and waning in the eyewall region, with slight downward trend noted in the past hour or so. In contrast, the upper-level outflow remains impressive and continues to expand everywhere except to the south. Florence is now moving toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. There has been no significant change to the NHC model guidance, including the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are now virtually on top of each other and the simple consensus model TVCA. As a result, no changes were required to the previous NHC track. The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time, little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. On the current forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to be near the coasts of southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina in 48 to 72 hours and then drift westward to west- southwestward in weak steering flow. There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to strengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and highest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest between 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow morning. After that, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should cause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which should induce a gradual weakening trend. Once Florence reaches the shallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more significant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that time. While Florence's maximum winds are expected to weaken a little, it is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 29.8N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 33.5N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 33.8N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 15/1200Z 33.6N 78.4W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 16/1200Z 33.6N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 34.7N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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