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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 51

2018-09-12 04:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 176 WTNT41 KNHC 120254 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Florence's eye became a little ragged in appearance on satellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become better defined. There has also been a little cooling of the tops surrounding the eye. These features suggest that Florence is maintaining its intensity. The current intensity is kept at 120 kt, which is a little above the adjusted flight-level winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and a little below the latest SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to move over a warm ocean and through an environment of low vertical shear. This would allow some additional strengthening until about 48 hours. From that time and up to landfall, the global models suggest some increase in shear which would cause some weakening. However, Florence is still likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane when its center crosses the coast. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and ICON intensity model consensus. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the hurricane nears the coast. The steering pattern from 72 hours and beyond becomes more complicated and uncertain. The latest GFS model run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States in 3-4 days. This temporarily blocks the forward progress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the model run. Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of Florence allowing the system to move inland. The official track forecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to the right of the latest consensus predictions. It should be noted that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast. It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51

2018-09-12 04:53:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 876 FONT11 KNHC 120253 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) X(19) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 1(27) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 4(27) 1(28) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 9(36) 1(37) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 27(38) 7(45) 1(46) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 40(54) 12(66) 2(68) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) X(21) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 28(46) 6(52) 1(53) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 29(48) 5(53) 1(54) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 28(48) 6(54) 1(55) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 25(61) 8(69) X(69) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 3(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 44(57) 15(72) 3(75) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) 1(28) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 43(72) 11(83) 2(85) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 8(44) 1(45) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 32(77) 7(84) 1(85) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 7(47) 1(48) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 4( 4) 62(66) 21(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 11(46) 3(49) X(49) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) 37(86) 7(93) 1(94) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 43(56) 13(69) 1(70) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 9(42) 1(43) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 39(49) 20(69) 3(72) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 2(27) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 46(88) 8(96) 2(98) X(98) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 23(74) 3(77) 1(78) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 24(45) 5(50) 1(51) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 74(78) 19(97) 2(99) 1(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 22(22) 53(75) 11(86) 2(88) X(88) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 17(58) 2(60) X(60) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 4( 4) 70(74) 23(97) 2(99) 1(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 19(19) 56(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 18(64) 4(68) X(68) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 49(90) 8(98) 1(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 25(84) 4(88) 1(89) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 32(62) 5(67) 1(68) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 54(86) 11(97) 1(98) 1(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 28(80) 5(85) 1(86) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 34(58) 7(65) X(65) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 55(58) 36(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 54(64) 20(84) 3(87) X(87) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 27(63) 5(68) 1(69) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 45(76) 10(86) 2(88) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 15(55) 2(57) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) 1(28) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 40(50) 17(67) 4(71) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) 3(29) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 53(68) 23(91) 3(94) X(94) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 37(63) 9(72) 1(73) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 8(46) 2(48) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 28(28) 48(76) 16(92) 2(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 33(61) 6(67) 2(69) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 9(43) 1(44) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) 36(77) 6(83) 1(84) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 31(38) 10(48) 2(50) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 38(55) 12(67) 2(69) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 3(31) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 29(36) 15(51) 3(54) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 5(20) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 19(45) 5(50) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 19(24) 13(37) 5(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 4(22) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 5(21) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 4(23) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-12 04:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Florence was located near 28.4, -68.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 51

2018-09-12 04:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 575 WTNT31 KNHC 120253 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 51

2018-09-12 04:52:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 554 WTNT21 KNHC 120252 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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