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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2018-09-12 10:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 280 FONT11 KNHC 120853 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 1(18) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) X(20) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 18(36) 6(42) 2(44) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 15(33) 3(36) 1(37) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 15(34) 4(38) 1(39) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 15(35) 3(38) 1(39) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 20(34) 16(50) 3(53) 1(54) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 19(39) 8(47) 3(50) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 21(58) 7(65) 2(67) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 34(47) 19(66) 5(71) 1(72) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 2(23) 1(24) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 13(13) 60(73) 11(84) 5(89) 1(90) X(90) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 46(61) 19(80) 6(86) 1(87) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 19(39) 5(44) 1(45) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 18(33) 12(45) 6(51) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 5( 5) 61(66) 21(87) 6(93) 1(94) X(94) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 13(13) 33(46) 13(59) 3(62) X(62) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) 2(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 16(16) 73(89) 8(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 46(46) 26(72) 8(80) 1(81) X(81) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 9(46) 1(47) X(47) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 12(12) 76(88) 9(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 43(43) 31(74) 8(82) 2(84) X(84) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 11(11) 31(42) 10(52) 2(54) X(54) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 63(68) 25(93) 4(97) 1(98) 1(99) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 18(18) 50(68) 12(80) 2(82) 1(83) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 11(53) 2(55) 1(56) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 56(60) 32(92) 4(96) 2(98) X(98) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 13(13) 51(64) 14(78) 3(81) 1(82) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 14(50) 2(52) 1(53) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 8( 8) 73(81) 16(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 32(32) 48(80) 8(88) 2(90) X(90) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 47(55) 13(68) 5(73) X(73) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 38(46) 23(69) 10(79) 3(82) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 9(34) 4(38) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 21(38) 17(55) 7(62) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 43(81) 10(91) 3(94) 1(95) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 19(63) 6(69) 2(71) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 3(37) 1(38) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 35(86) 7(93) 2(95) X(95) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 17(64) 7(71) 2(73) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 16(35) 7(42) 2(44) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 40(57) 18(75) 8(83) 2(85) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 18(34) 11(45) 2(47) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) 1(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 23(52) 13(65) 3(68) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27) 4(31) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 20(32) 17(49) 5(54) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 5(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 15(35) 10(45) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 17(37) 6(43) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 10(20) 6(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 7(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 10(25) 5(30) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 6(21) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-12 10:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 the center of Florence was located near 29.0, -70.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 52
2018-09-12 10:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 342 WTNT31 KNHC 120852 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 ...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 70.1W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border. The Hurricane Watch for this area has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 70.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday, and move through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 52
2018-09-12 10:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 318 WTNT21 KNHC 120852 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 70.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 70.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.0N 74.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.2N 76.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.8N 77.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 78.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.6N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 34.2N 82.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 70.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-12 07:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Florence was located near 28.5, -69.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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