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Tropical Depression Florence Forecast Discussion Number 68

2018-09-16 10:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 635 WTNT41 KNHC 160848 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Florence Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 Surface observations indicate that there are no longer any sustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has moved farther inland over South Carolina. Therefore, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time. Maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone will be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or so. In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will become an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to baroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days. This scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory. The forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this morning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt. The high pressure system that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is predicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day or so. As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is expected to move northwestward, northward, and then north-northeastward around the periphery of the high. Later in the forecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 33.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 68

2018-09-16 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 043 FONT11 KNHC 160844 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 68 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Depression Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-16 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 the center of Florence was located near 33.8, -81.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 68

2018-09-16 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 825 WTNT31 KNHC 160844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 81.4W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia... An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North Carolina and far southwest Virginia. Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina... An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina. West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville... 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina and eastern South Carolina today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics

2018-09-16 07:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 05:31:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 03:22:10 GMT

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