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Tropical Storm Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-15 16:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 14:40:39 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-15 16:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE CRAWLING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.6, -79.6 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 65
2018-09-15 16:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 277 WTNT31 KNHC 151440 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 65 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...FLORENCE CRAWLING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of South Santee River and north of Cape Lookout. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.6 West. Florence is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the east of the center in heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported by a NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro, North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has fallen so far. In Newport, North Carolina, more than 24 inches of rainfall has been measured. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina northeastern South Carolina today through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 65
2018-09-15 16:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 209 FONT11 KNHC 151440 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 65 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLOTTE NC 34 4 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 21 14(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) COLUMBIA SC 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 65
2018-09-15 16:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 763 WTNT21 KNHC 151438 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 65 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.6N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.0N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.0N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 41.3N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 44.3N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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