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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-15 19:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.6, -79.8 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 65A

2018-09-15 19:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 459 WTNT31 KNHC 151752 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 65A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Florence is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the east of the center in heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro, North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has fallen so far. That rainfall total breaks the tropical cyclone rainfall record of 24.06 inches for North Carolina set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina northeastern South Carolina today through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Florence Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2018-09-15 17:22:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 15:22:50 GMT

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 65

2018-09-15 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 714 WTNT41 KNHC 151447 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 65 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 Florence continues to creep slowly westward and weaken across eastern South Carolina. NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar data indicate strong winds near 60 kt still exist between 3000-10000 ft within intense rainbands situated between the Cape Fear/Wilmington area and Bogue Inlet, North Carolina. Although those velocity values would typically correlate to 50-kt surface winds, those winds appear to be associated with small mesoscale circulations and possible supercell thunderstorms, and not the larger tangential wind field. In contrast, surface observations during the past couple of hours have only shown sustained winds of around 40 kt, so that is the intensity used for this advisory. The estimated central pressure of 995 mb is based on nearby surface observations across eastern South Carolina. Radar data and surface observations indicate that Florence has turned more westward, and has slowed down even more, and the initial motion estimate is now 270/02 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that a mid-level ridge currently centered over the upper Midwest will slide eastward across the lower Great Lakes to near the northeastern U.S. during the next 48 hours. This feature is expected to steer Florence and its remnants in a general westward motion for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. The ridge will continue to shift eastward and weaken, allowing Florence's circulation to get caught up in the faster mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate toward the northeast on day 3 and toward the east-northeast on days 4 and 5 as an extratropical low pressure system. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus model TCVA/TVCN. Florence's inner-core convection and wind field will continue to weaken throughout the next 72 hours or so. However, the outer wind field and an associated band of deep convection in the eastern semicircle will likely produce sustained tropical-storm-force winds for another 12 hours or so, with some high gusts continuing until the band moves inland by late Sunday as per the latest the latest NOAA HRRR and other mesoscale model runs. More importantly, continued heavy rains will be produced by this band of convection, which will exacerbate the already catastrophic flooding that is occurring across much of southeastern North Carolina. The official intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model guidance and the intensity model IVCN through 72 hours, and then follows a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models on days 4 and 5 when the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to strengthen due to baroclinic processes after moving over the relatively warm waters of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside today, especially after the midday high-tide period ends, extremely heavy rainfall will continue to be a serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence. More than two feet of rain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through today, and also along the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels. Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast coast of South Carolina coast today. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina today. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 33.6N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/0000Z 33.6N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 36.0N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 38.0N 82.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 41.3N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 44.3N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 48.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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