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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 67A
2018-09-16 07:30:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 864 WTNT31 KNHC 160530 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 67A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 ...FLORENCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION VERY SOON BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUING OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 80.8W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the east of the center near the coast and over water. A sustained wind of 35 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 44 mph (82 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in western North Carolina. Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible today. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few hours in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through today. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-16 04:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 02:36:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 03:22:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 67
2018-09-16 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 350 WTNT41 KNHC 160235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 Florence's center continues to trudge slowly westward across South Carolina, but heavy rainbands are still streaming inland from the ocean across extreme southeastern North Carolina. The NOS station at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach in the vicinity of these rainbands is the lone observing station that has still been reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and based on the most recent observations, Florence's maximum winds are estimated to be 35 kt. Florence is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within the next 6-12 hours, with the global model fields showing winds decreasing below 35 kt near the coast very soon. Continued weakening is anticipated while Florence moves farther inland, and it is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours when its circulation becomes less defined. Florence is then expected to become a strengthening extratropical low between days 3 and 5 when it exits the Northeast U.S. coast and moves out to sea. The initial motion is still very slow toward the west, or 275/3 kt. A mid-level ridge across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes is currently blocking Florence from making much headway, but that feature is expected to slide eastward to the western Atlantic during the next 24 hours. This should allow Florence to recurve and accelerate across the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. during the next 3 days, and then accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the Atlantic Ocean on days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the various model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina overnight. 3. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 33.7N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0000Z 35.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 39.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 41.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0000Z 43.0N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0000Z 45.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-16 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DELUGE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.7, -80.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 67
2018-09-16 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 131 WTNT31 KNHC 160234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DELUGE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 80.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas on Sunday and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the east of the center near the coast and over water. Within the past hour or so, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently reported near Chester, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in western North Carolina. Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue overnight in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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