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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-15 11:18:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 09:18:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 09:22:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-15 10:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 08:57:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 64
2018-09-15 10:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 485 WTNT41 KNHC 150851 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 Florence is slowly weakening while its center remains inland over extreme eastern South Carolina. However, WSR-88D Doppler radar still shows some intense bands of convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, and these bands have been training over the coast of North Carolina overnight. Based on current Doppler velocities of 55-60 kt at around 5500 ft, the current intensity is set at 45 kt. The system should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland today, and it is anticipated that Florence will become a tropical depression tonight. The official intensity forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through around day 3. By days 4 and 5, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to strengthen somewhat due to baroclinic processes after moving off the New England coast and passing near southern Atlantic Canada. Radar and satellite fixes indicate that Florence continues its west-southwestward motion at around 255/4 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the northwest of Florence is forecast to shift to the north, northeast, and east of the cyclone over the next couple of days. As a result, Florence should turn northwestward and northward, and then north-northeastward through 72 hours. Late in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one at days 4 and 5 but is in good agreement with the latest global model runs. Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside today, extremely heavy rainfall will continue to be a serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence. More than a foot of rain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through today, and also along the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels. Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast coast of South Carolina coast today. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina today. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 33.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 33.6N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 43.5N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 64
2018-09-15 10:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 535 FONT11 KNHC 150849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 5 X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLOTTE NC 34 7 6(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 32 21(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) COLUMBIA SC 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 24 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) AUGUSTA GA 34 8 10(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-15 10:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE SLOWLY WEAKENING JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BUT CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.6, -79.5 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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