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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 67

2018-09-16 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 131 WTNT31 KNHC 160234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DELUGE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 80.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas on Sunday and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the east of the center near the coast and over water. Within the past hour or so, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently reported near Chester, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in western North Carolina. Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue overnight in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 67

2018-09-16 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 112 FONT11 KNHC 160234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 67 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLOTTE NC 34 21 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 25 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 67

2018-09-16 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 704 WTNT21 KNHC 160233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 80.5W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 80.5W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.8N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 39.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 45.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 80.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics

2018-09-16 01:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 23:40:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 21:22:09 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-16 01:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF FLORENCE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.6, -80.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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