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Summary for Tropical Storm Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 30 the center of Kate was located near 22.7, -50.9 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kate Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 ...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is possible by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Kate Graphics
2021-08-30 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 14:56:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 14:56:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-30 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301455 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 Although strong upper-level westerly shear continues to plague the cyclone, its satellite presentation improved early this morning as its center moved closer to the edge of the convective cloud mass to its east. An ASCAT-A pass from 1100 UTC revealed an area of 30 to 40-kt winds in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with some slightly stronger winds possibly rain contaminated underneath the deep convection. Additionally, UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates have risen to around 40 kt within the past few hours, and TAFB gave a T2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak classification at 12 UTC. These data support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Kate. Its initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, although that could be a bit generous given recent satellite trends. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is allowing Kate to move just west of due north, or 355/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or so before the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished over the central Atlantic Ocean. Thereafter, the cyclone should move northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. By Friday, an approaching deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to accelerate northward or north-northeastward through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance has shifted a little left of the previous NHC track, and so the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The near-term intensity forecast is tricky, as the subtropical jet stream will maintain strong west-northwesterly shear over Kate during the next 24 to 36 h. In fact, recent satellite imagery of the cyclone shows the center is already more exposed than earlier this morning as the convection is waning. Kate is likely to continue exhibiting a bursting convective pattern over the next couple of days, which would likely result in some intensity fluctuations that hover around the tropical-storm-force threshold. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Kate as a 35-kt tropical storm during the first 36 h of the forecast. If Kate survives the hostile shear conditions, some modest intensification will be possible while the cyclone remains over 28 deg C waters. However, Kate will encounter a drier mid-level environment as it gains latitude, so significant strengthening does not appear likely at this time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one beyond 48 h, as it shows only modest strengthening with time. By day 5, the global models suggest that Kate could be becoming absorbed by a larger extratropical low expected to form and deepen near Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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