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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 ...KATE UNLIKELY TO LAST FOR ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 51.3W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 51.3 West. Kate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, with Kate forecast to become a remnant low by early Thursday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Kate Graphics
2021-08-31 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 31 Aug 2021 20:36:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 31 Aug 2021 21:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-31 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate continues to produce small, sporadic bursts of convection near and to the east of its partially exposed low-level center this afternoon. The cyclone has moved north of the subtropical jet stream that it has been centered under for the past couple of days, so the mid- to upper-level vertical wind shear is beginning to diminish. Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes this morning missed Kate's small circulation. The current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is moving a little faster to the north, or 360/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is largely unchanged. Kate is expected to begin moving north-northwestward tonight as a mid-level ridge builds to the east and northeast of the cyclone. This general motion should continue through early Thursday, before an approaching mid- to upper-level trough begins steering Kate more northward through Friday. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope, remaining close to the multi-model consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging, with mixed signals noted from the various intensity models. On the one hand, satellite imagery indicates the vertical wind shear is obviously diminishing over Kate, and the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs of around 28.5 deg C for the next couple of days. However, the cyclone remains embedded within a dry mid-level environment that is clearly making it difficult for Kate to produce organized convection. The official NHC intensity forecast still shows no explicit intensity change and remains closest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVDR aids. However, some short-term intensity fluctuations are certainly possible, which is notable since Kate's intensity is hovering around the tropical depression/storm threshold. By Thursday, Kate will be moving into an even drier, more subsident environment that will make it even more difficult to sustain deep convection. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Kate becoming a remnant low completely devoid of convection by Friday, with dissipation shortly thereafter ahead of an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 24.6N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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