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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...TENACIOUS COMPACT KATE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 51.7W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by this afternoon. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Kate is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday, with the remnant low dissipating on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Kate Graphics
2021-09-01 04:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 02:34:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 02:34:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-01 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Some bursts of convection have been forming within Kate's small circulation during the past several hours, but none of it has any real significant organization. In addition, the low clouds appear to be losing definition, and a very-recent ASCAT-B pass showed that the maximum winds are now only about 25 kt. It's going to be difficult for Kate to make much of a comeback, if at all. Moderate northerly shear, dry mid-level air, upper-level convergence, and an increasingly anticyclonic low-level environment are likely to cause the circulation to spin down further and make it hard for deep convection to persist. Therefore, the NHC official forecast now calls for additional weakening, with Kate likely becoming a remnant low by 36 hours (if not sooner) and dissipating by 72 hours. This scenario is closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions. Located on the southwestern periphery of a low-level area of high pressure, Kate is moving toward the north-northwest (345/9 kt). The depression is forecast to turn toward the northwest by morning, but then recurve around the high toward the north and north-northeast in a couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids and is generally just an update from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE UNLIKELY TO LAST FOR ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 31 the center of Kate was located near 25.4, -51.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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