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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-31 16:45:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 311445 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to displace the limited convective activity associated with Kate well to the east of its center, which is fully exposed and becoming less well-defined in visible satellite imagery. A small burst of deep convection from earlier this morning appears to be waning, as infrared cloud top temperatures are warming to the east of Kate's center. Consensus T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, in addition to the latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggest that Kate is now likely a tropical depression. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Kate's center has jogged a little east of due north this morning, and its initial estimated 12-h motion is northward, or 010/4 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast and east of Kate later today through Wednesday, which should steer the cyclone more north-northwestward through midweek. Then, Kate should turn toward the north on Thursday night and early Friday within the flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough that will be moving across the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one, and it lies near the reliable consensus aids TVCA and HCCA. The only minor track adjustment has Kate turning a little earlier and faster toward the north late this week. Even though the vertical shear is expected to diminish over Kate during the next 12-24 h, the cyclone remains embedded within a relatively dry mid-level environment. This will make it difficult for Kate to sustain enough organized convection to strengthen much. In fact, numerous models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show the low weakening in the coming days, as the model simulated satellite imagery suggests only sporadic bursts of convection will occur even after the shear subsides. However, the possibility of Kate briefly re-intensifying into a weak tropical storm cannot be completely ruled out, since the cyclone will remain over warm SSTs around 28 deg C for at least the next couple of days. The official NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the consensus aids IVCN and HCCA and shows no explicit change in intensity, although some fluctuation is possible. If Kate survives this week, the global models indicate that it will likely open up into a trough by Saturday morning, shortly before being absorbed by an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 23.5N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 27.3N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 29.0N 53.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 30.7N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 32.5N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-31 16:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 31 the center of Kate was located near 23.5, -50.8 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-31 16:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 311445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 50.8W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today. A north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-31 16:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 311445 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-31 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 311444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.7N 51.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.3N 52.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.0N 53.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.7N 54.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.5N 53.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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