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Tropical Storm Kate Graphics
2021-08-31 10:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 31 Aug 2021 08:45:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 31 Aug 2021 08:45:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-31 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 310844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate remains a strongly sheared tropical storm with the associated deep convection occurring in intermittent bursts in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, owing to 850-200-mb west-northwesterly vertical wind shear of at least 30 kt. The most recent Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates remain at 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity set for this advisory. This intensity is consistent with an earlier SSMI-S passive microwave satellite overpass that showed wind speeds of 30-35 kt on the west side of Kate where no convection/rain was present. The initial motion estimate is 360/04 kt. Kate's forward motion has slowed to as low 2 kt during the psst 6 hours, likely due to the hindering effects of the west-northwesterly shear direction and weak steering currents since Kate has recently moved into a weakness in the low- mid-level subtropical ridge. However, the latest NHC track guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will begin moving northward at a slightly faster forward speed as Kate moves through a break in the ridge. In about 24 hours, a mid-level ridge to the northeast and east of Kate is forecast to build westward, forcing the cyclone on a more northwestward trajectory that should continue through Thursday. By Friday, a mid- to upper-level trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic is forecast to gradually lift out Kate toward the north, and accelerate the cyclone toward the northeast on Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies near the left edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track-model envelope. The intensity forecast is not as straightforward as the track forecast. The aforementioned hostile shear conditions are predicted by the regional and global models, especially the ECMWF model, to gradually abate over the next 18-24 hours, with the magnitude of the shear to decrease to less than 10 kt by 24-36 hours when Kate will be moving over 28.5 deg C water temperatures. If Kate can survive the next 18 hours or so, which is possible since the 850-300-mb shear is much less at only 10-15 kt, then some restrengthening could occur, especially in the 24-48-hour period when the cyclone will be located underneath a small upper-level anticyclone. Countering that, however, is the somewhat dry air (near-50-percent humidity) in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that could limit the formation of inner-core convection. Thus for now, the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which shows Kate remaining as a low-end tropical storm through the 96-hour period. This scenario is consistent with the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. On day 5, Kate is forecast to dissipate when the cyclone or its remnants are expected to merge with an extratropical low and associated frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 23.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 23.9N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.2N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 28.3N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 29.9N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 31.5N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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kate
Summary for Tropical Storm Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-31 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 31 the center of Kate was located near 23.0, -50.9 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kate Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-31 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 310838 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 50.9W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today. A northwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-31 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 310838 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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