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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone KATE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-12 09:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Nov 12 the center of KATE was located near 40.7, -50.8 with movement ENE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone KATE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-11-12 09:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120846 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 50.8W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 280SE 480SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 50.8W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 51.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.8N 48.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 440SE 120SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 42.2N 45.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...380NE 440SE 150SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 43.3N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 180SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 46.3N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 50.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm KATE Graphics
2015-11-12 04:07:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2015 02:37:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2015 03:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-11-12 03:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 Kate continues to undergo extratropical transition. Satellite imagery show that Kate's cloud pattern has become increasingly elongated and asymmetric since the last advisory due to strong westerly shear. The cloud pattern has also taken on a comma-shape appearance, typically a precursor to frontogenesis and a completion of extratropical transition. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, based on a blend of Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to merge with Kate in about 12 hours or so, which should result in Kate's becoming post-tropical. After this occurs, baroclinic forcing from the trough should allow the post-tropical cyclone to maintain its intensity or perhaps even re-strengthen as indicated in the global models through about 24 hours. Beyond this time, a slow decay is forecast, with the post- tropical cyclone predicted to lose its identity in about 3 days when a new baroclinic development over the far north Atlantic becomes more dominant. The new intensity forecast represents an update of the previous one, with dissipation now shown a day sooner. Kate continues to move rapidly east-northeastward but appears to have slowed down some, and the initial motion estimate is 065/36. As a post-tropical cyclone, Kate's motion is forecast to decrease further during the next during 24 hours while it merges with the extratropical system to the west. A new and potent shortwave trough reaching Atlantic Canada in 2 to 3 days should then cause Kate to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward until dissipation. The new track forecast is generally slower relative to the previous one, consistent with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 40.1N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 41.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0000Z 42.2N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1200Z 43.1N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0000Z 45.3N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0000Z 53.8N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm KATE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-12 03:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Nov 11 the center of KATE was located near 40.1, -52.3 with movement ENE at 41 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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