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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 13
2015-11-12 03:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 ...KATE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 52.3W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 41 MPH...67 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 52.3 West. Kate is moving toward the east-northeast near 41 mph (67 km/h). A slower forward speed toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Kate is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, and only slowly weaken during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-11-12 03:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 120236 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-11-12 03:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120236 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 36 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 210SE 360SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 41.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 320SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.2N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...380NE 440SE 150SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 43.1N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 45.3N 37.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 100SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 53.8N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 480SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane KATE Graphics
2015-11-11 22:03:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2015 20:35:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2015 21:03:47 GMT
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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-11-11 21:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112034 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 Kate is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. The cloud pattern has become asymmetric, due to very strong westerly shear, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the associated deep convection. In addition, stable stratocumulus clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation, and there is some evidence of a developing warm front to the east of the center. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, based on the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The combination of continued strong shear and the interaction with an extratropical cyclone, located just to the west of Kate, should cause the hurricane to lose tropical characteristics tonight. After extratropical transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic forcing. The new intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Kate continues to race east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 065/38 kt. A slowdown is expected to begin soon, and an erratic northeastward to east-northeastward motion is likely during the next couple of days while Kate interacts with, and then absorbs, the extratropical low to its west. After Kate and the extratropical low merge Thursday night or early Friday, a faster northeastward motion is expected. The new track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 40.1N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/1800Z 41.5N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0600Z 42.2N 45.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1800Z 43.9N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1800Z 51.9N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1800Z 57.7N 13.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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