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Summary for Tropical Storm KATE (AT2/AL122015)

2015-11-10 21:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KATE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 4:00 PM EST Tue Nov 10 the center of KATE was located near 32.2, -72.7 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 8

2015-11-10 21:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 ...KATE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 72.7W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Kate. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 72.7 West. Kate is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight, and this fast east-northeastward motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Kate is expected to remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States and pass north of Bermuda tonight and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Kate is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Kate is forecast to lose tropical characteristics Wednesday night or Thursday, but remain a powerful cyclone through that time. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells from Kate will begin to affect Bermuda tonight and continue through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 8

2015-11-10 21:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 72.7W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 155SE 165SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 72.7W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.3N 68.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 40.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 42.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 150SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 43.0N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...360NE 440SE 300SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 48.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 58.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2015-11-10 17:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101646 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Corrected forecast motion at the end of the period to northeastward in third paragraph. Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb. Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature, with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation, consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over the cyclone. Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5 days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of 035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a faster northeastward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan

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