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Hurricane KATE Graphics
2015-11-11 10:10:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2015 09:10:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2015 09:03:45 GMT
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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-11-11 10:06:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110906 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in conventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the center in an area of strong convection. However, a just received AMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become better defined near the center. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to a hurricane. The initial motion is 055/35. Kate is now embedded in the westerlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near New England. The tropical cyclone should continue a general east-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next several days. However, a decrease in forward speed and some erratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts with, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low. Despite the complexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent agreement with only a small spread in direction and speed. The new forecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should prevent any additional intensification. Kate should begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it by 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low. The resulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 36.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 38.1N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.8N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 42.3N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 42.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 46.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 54.0N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-11-11 10:06:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 110906 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane KATE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-11 10:01:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF 2015 WELL NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Nov 11 the center of KATE was located near 36.0, -65.7 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane KATE Public Advisory Number 10
2015-11-11 10:01:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110901 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 ...KATE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF 2015 WELL NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 65.7W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF BERMUDA ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Kate. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kate was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 65.7 West. Kate is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h) and this general motion should continue today. A motion toward the northeast with some decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Kate is forecast to lose tropical characteristics by Thursday, but remain a powerful cyclone through that time. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells from Kate will begin to affect Bermuda this morning and continue through the remainder of today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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