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Tropical Storm KATE Graphics
2015-11-10 10:03:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2015 08:57:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2015 09:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-11-10 09:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100856 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Kate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous advisory. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A NOAA P-3 aircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the center it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and surface winds between 40-45 kt. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The plane will be making a few more passes through the center during the next couple of hours. Although vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next couple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C within the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models indicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane strength by 36 hours, if not sooner. After 36 hours, the shear is expected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to become post-tropical. One significant change on this cycle is that the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical low. Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours, showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic on days 3-5. Kate is accelerating northward with an initial motion of 010/15 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and east-northeastward and accelerate further through Wednesday as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Kate is likely to slow down around day 3 when it becomes extratropical, but it should resume a faster northeastward motion toward the far north Atlantic on days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is primarily an update of the previous forecast through 48 hours, and the extended extratropical portion beyond day 3 is generally a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 31.0N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 33.9N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 36.6N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 39.2N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0600Z 43.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm KATE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-10 09:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... As of 4:00 AM EST Tue Nov 10 the center of KATE was located near 28.8, -75.8 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 6
2015-11-10 09:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 ...KATE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 75.8W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 75.8 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast later today, followed by an even faster east-northeastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kate is expected to remain well offshore the east coast of the United States and north of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kate could become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kate are affecting the eastward-facing beaches in the northwestern Bahamas but should gradually subside today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-11-10 09:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 100855 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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