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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 586 WTPZ34 KNHC 291753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 19:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 17:53:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 15:40:32 GMT
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Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 16:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:46:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:46:46 GMT
Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-29 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291445 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Nora has a healthy satellite appearance this morning. The deep convection near and to the west of the estimated center is maintaining a fairly large central dense overcast with very cold infrared cloud tops. Recent ATMS and SSMIS microwave data indicate Nora still has a pronounced mid-level eye structure, with the center very near the coast of extreme southern Sinaloa. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and 12 UTC subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. The estimated initial motion of Nora is north-northwestward or 345/9 kt, although this is somewhat uncertain due to the lack of in-situ observations. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone generally north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days. This motion will bring the center over the eastern Gulf of California and very near or over the coast of west-central Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is adjusted just slightly to the right of the previous one, in line with the latest track guidance. Nora's intensity forecast remains highly dependent on whether the center moves inland over mainland Mexico or along the Gulf of California, parallel to the west-central coast of Mexico. Given the slight eastward track adjustment, the official NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening over the next few days due to at least intermittent land interaction as Nora skirts the coast. This is consistent with the general intensity guidance consensus, which no longer supports strengthening given Nora's proximity to land. Due to the complex geography of western Mexico, even a slight eastward deviation from the forecast track would result in more rapid weakening as Nora moves further inland. Conversely, a more northwestward motion over the warm Gulf of California waters could allow Nora to remain a stronger tropical storm early this week. As previously mentioned, confidence in the intensity forecast is lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa today and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward near or over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 23.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291445 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 2( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 41 12(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CULIACAN 50 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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