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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-30 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 168 WTPZ44 KNHC 300241 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Nora appears to have moved inland, and it is unclear if it still has a well-defined surface center. Earlier microwave data was inconclusive regarding the existence of the low level center, while the Dvorak analysts from TAFB and SAB were each unable to fix Nora's center over water. The intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, assuming weakening has occurred due to continued interaction with land. Baring an unexpected redevelopment of the center over water, Nora should continue to weaken inland, and could dissipate as soon as early Monday. Quick dissipation is now supported by all of the dynamical guidance. Accordingly, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted much lower than in the previous advisory. Nora is forecast to become post-tropical tomorrow and dissipate by Tuesday. Based on recent trends, this forecast is probably generous. Despite the uncertainty associated with Nora's position, the system still appears to be moving generally north-northwestward, with an initial motion of 330/10 kt. None of the dynamical guidance is able to track a low-level center more than about 24 h. However,there is good agreement that the mid-level remnants of Nora will continue moving generally northwestward and could contribute to heavy rain across northwest Mexico and portions of the southwestern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of the week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Nayarit northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 24.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-30 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAIN FROM NORA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 24.8, -107.9 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-30 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300241 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HUATABAMPO 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 10 19(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-30 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN FROM NORA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 107.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Bahia Tempehuaya and all of the Tropical Storm Watch. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 24.8 North, longitude 107.9 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Nora dissipates inland in a day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Nora is forecast to weaken inland during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-30 04:40:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300240 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA AND ALL OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 107.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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