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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-29 10:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 105.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-29 10:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290850 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 105.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 105.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 07:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 05:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:40:18 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 07:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 22.0, -105.7 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 14A
2021-08-29 07:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 171 WTPZ34 KNHC 290534 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 105.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 22.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early this week along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of this week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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