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Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 05:00:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:00:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:40:18 GMT
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290259 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Surface data from Mexico, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and microwave imagery from an 2344 UTC SSMIS indicate that the center of Nora moved over the far northwestern coast of Jalisco earlier this evening. Since then, the cloud pattern of the hurricane has degraded, but not enough to bring the latest Dvorak estimates below hurricane strength. The advisory intensity is therefore set at 65 kt based on the assumption that interaction with land has caused weakening, however there is low confidence in this assessment. The ever-so-slight rightward deviation from the forecast track that brought Nora inland, at least briefly, highlights the sensitivity of the system's future to its exact track. A sizable portion of the latest dynamical guidance, including the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models indicate that Nora will move inland tonight or early Sunday and dissipate. All three models also indicate it could reform over the Gulf of California in a few days. Other models, like the UKMET and CMC global models maintain Nora as a coherent tropical cyclone much longer. While the models can easily flip flop from run to run, the NHC forecast cannot drastically change solutions so cavalierly. Therefore, the official forecast is based on the condition that Nora will stay far enough offshore to persist as a tropical cyclone. Regardless of its exact state, Nora is forecast to turn toward the northwest on Sunday and then move along the coast toward northern Mexico early next week. This general solution is supported by all of the available guidance. A slight eastward adjustment has been made to the NHC track forecast to account for the slightly east initial position. Given Nora's recent movement over land, the intensity forecast has been lowered substantially at all forecast hours, but still maintains Nora near hurricane strength for the next couple of days. This is well above the most recent intensity consensus, which is heavily influenced by the dynamical models that move Nora inland. If it doesn't move inland sooner, Nora will likely quickly weaken as it moves permanently inland by around 96 h, and become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to continue moving northward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 21.3N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA OVERNIGHT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 21.3, -105.5 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290258 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 105.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from east of Playa Perula to Manzanillo and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Altata to Topolobampo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 21.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the southern hurricane warning area tonight and could spread northward through the warning area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico and are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290258 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 16(17) 18(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 50 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MAZATLAN 34 93 2(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MAZATLAN 50 48 14(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 64 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN BLAS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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