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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-27 04:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 541 WTPZ34 KNHC 270249 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...NORA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 102.6W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 102.6 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-27 04:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 542 FOPZ14 KNHC 270249 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 19(60) 2(62) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 1(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 19(64) 2(66) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) 1(26) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 4(37) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 31(69) 1(70) X(70) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 31(37) 3(40) X(40) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 28(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 37 36(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 105W 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 1 11(12) 39(51) 6(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 4 13(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15(21) 4(25) X(25) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-27 04:48:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270248 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.6W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.6W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 104.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 108.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 24.4N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 112.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 102.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-27 01:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 23:43:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 21:30:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-27 01:43:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 13.7, -102.2 with movement WNW at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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