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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-08-27 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 844 WTPZ24 KNHC 272048 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.3N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.9N 110.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics

2021-08-27 19:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 17:35:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 15:28:47 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-27 19:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...RAINBANDS FROM NORA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THOUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 15.7, -104.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 8A

2021-08-27 19:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271734 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...RAINBANDS FROM NORA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THOUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 104.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 104.6 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A ship near the coast of Mexico about 200 miles northeast of Nora's center recently reported winds of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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