je.st

Home › nora

Tag: nora

Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2021-08-27 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 46(51) 10(61) 1(62) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) 1(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 52(57) 10(67) X(67) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 17(35) 2(37) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 54(66) 14(80) 1(81) X(81) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 33(51) 1(52) X(52) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 32(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 105W 50 9 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 105W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 42(46) 5(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 3 16(19) 34(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 8 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 12(25) 2(27) X(27) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-27 10:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BROAD NORA EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 14.6, -103.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical nora

Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 7

2021-08-27 10:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270858 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...BROAD NORA EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 103.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 103.5 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

Tags: number public storm advisory

Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-08-27 10:57:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270857 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 103.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical