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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-28 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF JALISCO MEXICO LATER TODAY... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 17.8, -105.4 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-28 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281151 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF JALISCO MEXICO LATER TODAY... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slight bend to the northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated as long as Nora remains offshore the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today and tomorrow. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest through the Gulf of California. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-28 11:00:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280900 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The inner-core structure appears to be tightening up with Nora this morning. Deep convection with tops colder than -70 C has been blossoming and wrapping around the center, first around the eastern side, but more recently in all quadrants as a distinct warm spot denotes the center. Earlier, there was a helpful SSMIS microwave pass at 0143 UTC that showed a closed cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel, which is a signal often related to a formative low-level eyewall and is often a harbinger for significant intensification. An ASCAT-B pass at 0403 UTC also suggested the wind-radii were gradually contracting, and also that the center position is a little further east of the short-term track. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC from SAB and TAFB have both increased to T4.0/65 kt. These estimates, in addition to the recent structural improvements in IR satellite and microwave imagery, support raising the intensity to 65-kt for this advisory, making Nora a hurricane. Nora continues to move a little more poleward this morning, with the latest motion estimate at 345 degrees at 9 kt. While the track forecast philosophy hasn't changed much over the last day, as a weakening mid-level ridge provides a weakness for Nora to escape north-northwestward, there has been a notable eastward shift in the track guidance. The deterministic ECMWF run, for instance, is now showing the hurricane brushing the shoreline of Mainland Mexico near Cabo Corrientes in 24 hours, and is now quite similar to the latest GFS forecast. The ECMWF ensembles have also shifted further east, with around half of the members explicitly showing landfall over mainland Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast has thus been shifted eastward, especially during the first 24-48 hours of the forecast, but I did not want to shift Nora's track as far east as the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids and further eastward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent forecasts. Afterwards, if Nora remains intact, the guidance shows the system bending back to the northwest and running up the gap of the Gulf of California between Baja California Sur and Mainland Mexico. Now that Nora appears to developing an inner core, at least steady intensification is expected in the short-term while the hurricane remains far enough offshore of mainland Mexico in a favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment. After 12 hours, the intensity forecast becomes very tricky, due to just how much land interaction Nora will encounter as it brushes by Mexico. Once again, a lot of the reliable intensity guidance shows substantial land interaction and are sharply lower after 24 hours. Because the latest forecast track has been shifted further east, it increases the chance that significant disruption of the storm may occur by the mountainous terrain located near the coast of Mexico in that location. The latest intensity forecast was lowered after 24 hours and held at 70 kt through 96 hours due to this large uncertainty tied to possible land interaction. The latest forecast remains higher than the majority of the guidance, but is lower than the previous forecast. The wind radii have also been adjusted smaller after 24 hours, as the global model guidance suggests that the TC wind field will shrink quite dramatically as the system tracks near mainland Mexico. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings have been extended further north along the mainland Mexico coastline given the eastward adjustments in the latest forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast strengthen today as it approaches the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas and points further north should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. As Nora lifts northwest, heavy rainfall will spread into the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora as well as the southwestern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.1N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.8N 106.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO 36H 29/1800Z 22.4N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 24.1N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 24.9N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 26.4N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 28.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-28 11:00:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 09:00:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 09:00:33 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-28 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 17.1, -105.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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