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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-17 17:00:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:00:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:28:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-17 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The cloud pattern of Grace is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images, but the system still lacks distinct banding features over the eastern semicircle. Cirrus-level outflow from the system appears to be well defined. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, as well as dropsonde measurements, support an intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Not much change in intensity is likely through this afternoon while the circulation of Grace interacts with the island of Jamaica. Thereafter, since the cyclone will be over the very high heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea with modestly low vertical shear tonight and Wednesday, strengthening is anticipated. Grace will likely become a hurricane tomorrow and continue to intensify before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The interaction with that land mass is expected to temporarily interrupt strengthening, with some reintensification over the Bay of Campeche in 3-4 days. The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus for the first half of the forecast period, but below the consensus for the latter part of the period owing to the inherent uncertainties for that extended time frame. Grace continues to move just a little north of due west, or at about 280/13 kt. A well-defined 500 mb ridge should remain entrenched to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Therefore, a continued west to west-northwestward track is likely to continue for most, if not all, of the forecast period. The official forecast is close to the previous one through 72 hours and just slightly south of it at 4-5 days. This is very similar to the latest multi-model consensus prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and Jamaica. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica today, and over the Cayman Islands later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today in the warning area, spreading westward to possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning will likely be needed for that area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 18.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-17 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 171452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 25(60) X(60) X(60) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 45(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 87(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 59(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MONTEGO BAY 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGSTON 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-17 16:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.8W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.8W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 76.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-17 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND SPREADING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Grace was located near 18.3, -76.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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