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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics

2021-08-17 10:59:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 08:59:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 08:59:58 GMT

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-08-17 10:59:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170859 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty locating the center of Grace early this morning. The last few visible satellite images along with 0200Z ASCAT wind data indicated that a lee-side surface low had formed south of the western tip of Haiti. That feature has gradually been pulling northward closer to the deep convection that has developed near the well-defined mid-level circulation center. The initial position is the midpoint between the recon position in the latest vortex message and the mid-level circulation noted in passive microwave imagery. The aircraft also found some patches of 925-mb flight-level winds of 48-51 kt, which equates to surface winds of 36-38 kt. Reliable SFMR surface winds obtained by the aircraft were also in the 36-38-kt range. Based on these data, Grace was upgraded back to a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across western Hispaniola today and over Jamaica this afternoon and tonight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a westward or west-northwestward track through the 120-h forecast period. Only a very sight southward shift in the previous forecast track was made, which was due primarily to the new estimated southerly initial position, and the new NHC forecast track lies along the northern edge of model guidance envelope. Once Grace passes Jamaica in 12-18 hours, the cyclone will be passing over water temperatures near 30 deg C and into a more divergent upper-level wind flow pattern. These two favorable conditions should allow for Grace to slowly intensify and possibly be near hurricane strength by the time the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about 48 hours. Thereafter, Grace will weaken as it pass over Yucatan, and then re-strengthen some over the Bay of Campeche before reaching mainland Mexico in about 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola and over Jamaica on today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-17 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GRACE CONTINUING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Grace was located near 18.2, -75.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 16

2021-08-17 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward to Punta Allen. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 75.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft were near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico late Wednesday and early Thursday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-08-17 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170855 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 75.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 75.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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