je.st

Home › grace

Tag: grace

Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2021-08-17 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 170855 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 1(37) X(37) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 9(52) X(52) X(52) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 25(25) 36(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 19 27(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MONTEGO BAY 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind grace

Tropical Storm Grace Graphics

2021-08-17 07:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 05:48:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:29:20 GMT

Tags: graphics grace storm tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-17 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Grace was located near 18.1, -74.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary grace storm tropical

Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 15A

2021-08-17 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170547 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 74.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through today. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number public grace storm