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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-15 11:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2014 08:42:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2014 09:04:48 GMT

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2014-06-15 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-15 10:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 the center of CRISTINA was located near 19.8, -112.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 24

2014-06-15 10:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 112.7W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 24

2014-06-15 10:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.7W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.7W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.2N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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