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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-14 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2014 02:32:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2014 02:32:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-14 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA VERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 the center of CRISTINA was located near 18.9, -110.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 19
2014-06-14 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 ...EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA VERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.7W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A SLOWER WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CRISTINA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. EARLIER THIS EVENING...AN AUTOMATED MEXICAN NAVAL AIR STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH... 78 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH...131 KM/H...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE WAS APPROACHING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-06-14 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140233 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 64 70 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-06-14 04:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140232 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 90SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.3N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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