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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-13 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2014 20:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2014 20:33:48 GMT

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 18

2014-06-13 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132033 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 A 1657 UTC AMSU pass suggests that Cristina's eyewall replacement is probably almost complete, and coincidentally, visible satellite images show a ragged eye trying to re-form. The convective pattern is somewhat lopsided, however, and objective ADT estimates have continued to slowly decrease. Based on the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. Now that the eyewall replacement appears complete, it is not out of the question that Cristina could re-intensify a bit or at least maintain its intensity in the short term while environmental conditions remain relatively favorable. From this point forward, however, vertical shear will be gradually increasing and sea surface temperatures will be decreasing. Therefore, the gradual weakening trend currently in progress is expected to continue during the next three days, with Cristina likely to become a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, which dissipates Cristina by day 3. Cristina is still moving northwestward at about 7 kt. The cyclone is expected to begin slowing down in about 24 hours when the mid- level ridge to its north weakens. Low- to mid-level ridging will then steer Cristina west-northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance is in fairly good agreement on Cristina's future track, and no significant changes to the NHC forecast were required on this advisory cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.5N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.6N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.9N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 20.3N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2014-06-13 22:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132033 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 87 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 64 43 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 18

2014-06-13 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132032 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 2100 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 90SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.6N 111.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.3N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-13 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 the center of CRISTINA was located near 18.5, -110.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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