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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 16

2014-06-13 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 After going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday, Cristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate. Microwave imagery suggest that the eyewall is about 50 percent open, and only occasional hints of an eye can be seen on conventional satellite data. The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt as a blend of the Dvorak estimates. However this value is more uncertain than normal owing to a rather large spread in the satellite intensity estimates from various agencies. Decreasing SSTS, along with increasing shear and dry air aloft, should generally continue to weaken Cristina. Most of the models do suggest a slower weakening rate than what has recently been observed, which seems reasonable since the environment isn't extremely hostile. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, mostly to account for the steep drop in the initial wind speed, and is close to the intensity consensus. Transition into a remnant low seems likely in about 3-4 days when Cristina is surrounded by very dry air and over cool waters. The cyclone is now moving to the northwest at about 7 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two while Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the weakened storm should turn westward, steered primarily by the low-level flow. The only notable change to the track guidance on this cycle is that Cristina continues the west-northwestward motion for a little longer before taking the westward turn. The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the north beyond 48 hours, following the trend in the latest guidance, but is otherwise virtually unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.7N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2014-06-13 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130838 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 49 46(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA SOCORRO 50 5 63(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 32(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 2(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 16

2014-06-13 10:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.1W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.1W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-13 05:08:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2014 02:32:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2014 03:03:46 GMT

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 15

2014-06-13 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 108.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 108.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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