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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-12 17:08:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 14:42:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 15:03:46 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-06-12 17:04:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121504 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Corrected wording in last paragraph Cristina has gone through an extraordinary, but not unprecedented, phase of rapid intensification during the past 24 hours, with its maximum winds increasing by about 65 kt since this time yesterday. The hurricane has a circular central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops to near -80C. Water vapor images indicate that upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted in the southwestern quadrant but is good elsewhere. Cristina has strengthened so fast that TAFB and SAB satellite estimates are limited to T6.0/115 kt by Dvorak rules. The initial intensity is set at 130 kt, a little below the latest objective ADT estimate of T6.8/135 kt. The intensity trend appears to have leveled off a bit, and no further significant strengthening is expected. However, light vertical wind shear and a deep warm ocean should allow Cristina to maintain major hurricane strength for another 36 hours or so. After that time, gradually increasing vertical shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should induce significant weakening after about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is fairly close to the consensus ICON and is similar to that of the special advisory. Cristina is located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico, and the initial motion remains 295/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward heading during the next 4 days due to the ridge, and the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The GFDL model is the primary outlier, taking Cristina farther north after 48 hours. The official forecast sticks with the rest of the guidance, however, and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this is the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes through June in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the satellite era in 1966. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached that threshold on July 1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.6N 107.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-06-12 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121441 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 26(27) 59(86) 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 49(52) 12(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 29(29) 10(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 18(29) 4(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 13
2014-06-12 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CRISTINA MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 107.1W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT. CRISTINA COULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-06-12 16:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121440 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.1W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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