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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 15

2014-06-13 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina has weakened during the last several hours. The eye has lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images. In addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to mid-level dry air and some westerly shear. Dvorak intensity numbers from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates. Cristina is expected to continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment, including progressively colder waters during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus IVCN. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the weakening and shallower system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Hurricane CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-13 04:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA ON A WEAKENING TREND BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 the center of CRISTINA was located near 17.3, -108.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 15

2014-06-13 04:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CRISTINA ON A WEAKENING TREND BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 108.3W ABOUT 285 MI...465 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2014-06-13 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130231 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 83(86) 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 49(49) 19(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 19(19) 19(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 11(23) 2(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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