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Jesse Lee Brockner (non fatal)
2017-09-28 20:45:58| PortlandOnline
Case #17-284477
Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-28 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 14:53:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 15:22:18 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 42
2017-09-28 16:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281447 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 Northerly shear continues to adversely affect the organization of Lee. The central dense overcast has become fairly asymmetric, with most of the cold cloud tops limited to the southern semicircle, and the eye is also losing definition. All of the various objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of these data. The global models continue to indicate that the northerly shear will get stronger over the next two days. This shear, combined with progressively cooler SSTs along the forecast track of Lee, should result in continued weakening. The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening rate than before, in line with the latest intensity guidance. The dynamical models all forecast Lee to dissipate near a frontal zone around 48 h. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Lee as a tropical cyclone at that point, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated or became a remnant low between 36 and 48 h. Lee is beginning to accelerate toward the north, and the initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northeast while accelerating in the fast mid-latitude flow until it eventually opens up into a trough in a couple of days. Very little change was made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to HCCA and near the center of the tightly clustered global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 33.7N 57.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 35.7N 55.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 42.9N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 47.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 42
2017-09-28 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281445 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 57.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 57.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.7N 55.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.9N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 110SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 47.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2017-09-28 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 281445 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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