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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 40
2017-09-28 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280233 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 57.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 57.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.7N 55.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.9N 51.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.5N 44.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 49.7N 25.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 57.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-27 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 20:39:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 21:22:36 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-09-27 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 272034 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 Lee looks like a classic major hurricane on satellite today, with a fairly clear eye and an impressive outflow pattern aloft. The most noticeable change during the day is that the eye has shrunk a little bit, perhaps suggesting Lee may undergo another eyewall cycle. Otherwise, the eye temperatures and eyewall convection are similar to 6 hours ago, resulting in similar Dvorak estimates. Thus, the wind speed will remain 100 kt for this advisory. Lee should be near its peak intensity tonight and begin to weaken tomorrow as vertical wind shear increases and SSTs cool. The system should be losing tropical characteristics by late week, and will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday due to it moving over very cold water. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the model consensus, and shaded toward the global models, due to the interaction with the mid-latitudes. Lee has turned even farther to the right, and is now moving north-northwestward at 7 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and northeastward by late Thursday as it moves around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. Lee should accelerate rapidly northeastward on Friday due to it encountering fast mid-latitude flow. Model guidance is tightly clustered, so the official forecast is close to the previous one, on the ECMWF side of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.2N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 34.3N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 37.3N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 41.0N 48.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 48.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2017-09-27 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 272033 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-27 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE MAY FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR TOMORROW... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 27 the center of Lee was located near 31.2, -57.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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