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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2017-09-27 04:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 270233 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-27 04:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 26 the center of Lee was located near 30.0, -55.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 36
2017-09-27 04:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 ...LEE REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 55.5W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1715 MI...2760 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 55.5 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). The hurricane is expected to turn northwestward on Wednesday and northward on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee could become a major hurricane on Wednesday before weakening likely begins on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-26 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 20:37:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 21:22:10 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 35
2017-09-26 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262031 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 Satellite images indicate that the cloud-top temperatures in the eyewall of Lee have cooled this afternoon, with about the same warm temperatures in the eye. This indicates Lee remains on a strengthening trend, and the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt, near the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique figure. Lee has about 24 hours to intensify before shear increases and water temperatures begin to cool. Most of the guidance now show Lee becoming a major hurricane, and the official forecast follows suit. A more significant weakening is expected by the end of the week as the hurricane moves over much colder waters and into higher shear. Model guidance is virtually unanimous on this scenario, and only minor changes were made to the previous forecast. The small tropical cyclone should become absorbed in a large extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean within 4 or 5 days. Lee is moving westward at 8 kt. The hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster mid-latitude flow. The most significant change to the previous forecast is that the model guidance has trended westward with the first part of the forecast, closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF solution. Since the 12 UTC ECMWF is very consistent with its previous forecast, the NHC track forecast is adjusted westward near the point of recurvature, then is blended back with the previous forecast closer to the corrected consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 29.9N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 30.0N 55.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 31.0N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 32.4N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 41.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 48.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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