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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 43
2017-09-28 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282036 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 The satellite presentation of Lee has continued to degrade over the past six hours. The IR eye has opened on the northern side, and the low-level center of circulation appears to be displaced to the north-northwest of the mid-level center. Outflow in the northwest quadrant has also become severely restricted. A blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the U-W CIMSS at 1800 UTC was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 80 kt, but it is possible this is generous, given the continued degradation of the satellite presentation since that time. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast. Lee is now estimated to be moving toward the north-northeast, or 25 degrees, around 15 kt. Lee should continue to accelerate toward the north-northeast to northeast ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough for the next couple of days. The dynamical models are still tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast remains close to the track consensus. Along this track, increasing shear and cooler SSTs will cause Lee to continue to weaken. Between 36 and 48 hours, a combination of weakening and faster forward motion should cause Lee to open up into a trough and dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast follows the relatively fast weakening trend of DSHP for the first 12 hours, and is close to the intensity consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 35.1N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 37.4N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 41.2N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 45.6N 39.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2017-09-28 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 282035 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-28 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 28 the center of Lee was located near 35.1, -55.8 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 43
2017-09-28 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 ...LEE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 55.8W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1605 MI...2580 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 55.8 West. Lee is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with a substantial increase in forward speed is expected tonight or early Friday, and that motion will continue until Lee dissipates on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 43
2017-09-28 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282035 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 55.8W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 200SE 110SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 55.8W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.4N 53.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 41.2N 47.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 45.6N 39.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 55.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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