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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 01:27:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 172327 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Odette, located a couple of hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast. The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and some gradual development is possible over the weekend. However, by early next week, further development appears unlikely as the system is expected to move into strong upper-level winds and over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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atlantic
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 01:05:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
154 ABPZ20 KNHC 172305 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-17 19:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171740 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. Recent satellite images indicate that a new and better-defined center of circulation has developed in association with a low pressure area located about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near this new center. If these development trends continue, then a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the northeast or east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, away from the United States Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. The low is expected to transform into a non-tropical gale-force low Saturday or Saturday night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. This system is also expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and some gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper-level winds increase and the low moves over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov High Seas Forecasts for the system off the United States Mid-Atlantic coast issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-17 19:12:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
639 ABPZ20 KNHC 171711 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-17 13:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171152 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is still likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near or north of the Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, remains broad and elongated, and most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced well to the north and east of the center. However, this system is still likely to become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before it makes a transition to a non-tropical gale-force low by Saturday or Saturday night while moving northeastward at about 15 mph away from the United States mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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