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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-06 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the past few hours. However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt winds in a small area to the northwest of the center. Based mainly on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-06 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060837 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-06 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS JIMENA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Aug 5 the center of Jimena was located near 17.2, -138.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-06 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS JIMENA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 138.2W ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 138.2 West. Jimena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next day or two. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12 hours. However, steady weakening is forecast after that and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-06 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 138.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 138.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 138.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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