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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-05 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050835 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in the southeastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus estimate is 39 kt. Based on these data, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds. The initial motion is 315/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward. After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow. The track guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to the right. However, the new forecast track still lies to the left of the consensus models. While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h. Thus, little additional strengthening is expected. After 24 h, the system should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-05 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-05 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JIMENA... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Aug 4 the center of Jimena was located near 15.5, -136.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-05 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JIMENA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 136.6W ABOUT 1810 MI...2915 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 136.6 West. Jimena is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. After that time, Jimena is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-05 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.6W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.6W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 136.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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