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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-08-05 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 128.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 128.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:35:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:35:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-04 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Convection associated with Hilda continues to weaken and shrink in areal coverage due to modest northwesterly vertical wind shear, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and entrainment of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. A 1656Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer pass revealed two 33-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant in the radius-of-maximum winds. Even allowing for some undersampling, this indicates that Hilda is barely hanging on to tropical storm status, and the initial intensity will remain at 35 kt for this advisory. Model analyses show virtually no instability in the center of and north of Hilda right now, and with the cyclone forecast to move over even cooler water and into increasing westerly wind shear during the next 12-24 hours, a rapid decrease in both the convection and cyclone's intensity appears to be forthcoming soon. Hilda is forecast to become a depression later tonight and a remnant low on Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda continues on a steady west-northwestward course or 295/08 kt. This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, followed by a more westward motion on Friday and Saturday as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to north of Hilda on days 2 and 3. The official NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the tightly packed consensus track models to the north and the ECMWF model to the south. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 19.4, -128.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-04 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 128.0W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 128.0 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight and degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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