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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-19 22:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 20:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 21:22:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-07-19 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to weaken at a rapid pace. Satellite images show that only a small amount of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant remains, and otherwise the circulation is largely a swirl of low-level clouds. Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. This makes Felicia a tropical storm once again. A recent ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds close to 45 kt, but given the very small size of the system and relatively coarse resolution of the instrument, it seems reasonable that stronger winds are occurring. Very dry air surrounding the small storm combined with cool SSTs and a steady rise in northwesterly wind shear should cause additional weakening, and Felicia will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly sooner if the current trends continue. The intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and is a little lower than the previous one. Felicia has been losing some latitude today, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward during the next several days until the cyclone dissipates, which is now expected to occur by day 4. Based on the current forecast, Felicia should cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-19 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 16.1, -133.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 23
2021-07-19 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 192035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 133.4W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 133.4 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly faster westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Felicia is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. Felicia is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-07-19 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 192035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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